Reddit shares fall 29% on weak outlook and falling Google traffic

What happened: Reddit shares fell 29.22% on Friday, 30 October, their worst day since the 2024 IPO. The drop followed weak fourth-quarter guidance and a meaningful fall in search referrals from Google.

The numbers: Third-quarter revenue rose 53% year on year to $895 million, with net income of $283 million. Daily active uniques (DAUq) reached 130.3 million, up 12%, and average revenue per unique rose 36% to $6.87. The previous worst day was 31 July, when shares dropped 20.99%. One GuruFocus report put Friday's fall at 18%, a figure that is unconfirmed.

The catch: Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $1.00 billion to $1.03 billion fell short of the $1.05 billion analysts expected. User numbers also trailed analyst estimates of 133.7 million.

The context: Huffman said Google's AI Mode drives no traffic to Reddit, or, as far as he knows, to anyone else. Search referrals fell by more than 1 million a week on average in October, according to Reddit's letter. Neither CNBC nor Search Engine Journal reported a response from Google.

Who's affected: Logged-out users drove the decline. U.S. DAUq fell from 53.2 million to 50.7 million, as logged-out users dropped from 30.1 million to 27.3 million. Logged-in users rose slightly, from 23.1 million to 23.4 million.

In their words: Steve Huffman, Reddit's CEO, said: "Reddit is the last platform to provide basically unfettered logged-out access, and that's largely because of me."

Why it matters: Analysts at Citizens said the search changes highlight the problem with selling content to Google. They added that referral problems and login uncertainty add pressure on monetisation. Logged-in and app users account for over 80% of monetisation.

What's next: Reddit will begin testing a logged-in-only experience in select markets outside the U.S. in the fourth quarter. The markets were not named. Outside the U.S., DAUq grew 24% year on year. Reddit says some version of the site will remain available before a hard login prompt, and shared links will keep working. If the trend continues, total DAUq could fall by a low-double-digit percentage in the fourth quarter from the 130 million base.